The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) has revised its projections, estimating that Near General Fund Outlook (NGFO) revenues will be $844 million lower than previously expected over the forecast period.
While the forecast for the current 2023–25 biennium has increased slightly by $55 million to $66.445 billion, projections for future biennium have been reduced. The 2025–27 forecast is down by $479 million to $70.952 billion, and the 2027–29 forecast has decreased by $420 million to $76.425 billion.
Compared to the February 2024 forecast, which informed the state’s operating budget, revenues are now expected to be lower by $560 million in 2023–25, $769 million in 2025–27, and $523 million in 2027–29—a total decline of $1.852 billion.
Despite these adjustments, NGFO revenues are still projected to grow, increasing by $4.507 billion from 2023–25 to 2025–27 and by $5.473 billion from 2025–27 to 2027–29. The ERFC’s alternative forecasts suggest potential revenue fluctuations, with an optimistic scenario estimating an increase of $4.374 billion by 2025–27 and a pessimistic outlook predicting a shortfall of $4.772 billion.
Retailers and businesses should stay informed on these changes, as they may impact state budget decisions and economic policies.
