Strong spending and vigorous labor market growth dissuade thoughts of recession

Jun 1, 2023
Written by WR Communications


As of April, the U.S. economy continues to exhibit signs of strength and stability, as supported by solid job growth, historically low unemployment, and robust consumer spending.

The labor market demonstrated a strong upward trend, adding 253,000 jobs in April and bringing the unemployment rate down to a historic low of 3.4%. This development surpassed economists’ expectations and represented a positive economic momentum, even amid financial uncertainties.

The labor force participation rate, which illustrates the share of individuals employed or actively seeking work, was 62.6% in April. In tandem with this, average hourly earnings, a key indicator of wage growth, followed a positive trajectory, climbing by 0.5% in March and by 4.4% compared to last year.

Consumer spending, a vital supporting force of the economy, hit new highs in April. This trend could reflect the solid job market and rising wages, likely boosting American consumers’ confidence and purchasing power. Nevertheless, some analysts warn of potential pressure from rising costs and possible interest rate hikes, which could impact affordability in the future.

While the Federal Reserve remains watchful of the labor market, concerned that it could fuel inflation that’s already running high, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed optimism that the workforce was “coming back into better balance,” albeit still “very tight.”

Even with certain headwinds, the combined strength of the labor market, low unemployment rates, and robust consumer spending create a picture of a resilient economic environment. This overall positive outlook suggests that fears of an immediate recession may be premature, reaffirming the overall strength of the U.S. economy.


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