The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) reported a $33.1 million shortfall in general fund revenue for July, totaling $2.28 billion. This represents a 1.4% decrease from the forecasted amount and a $22.8 million shortfall over the past two months. Key Revenue Act taxes, including sales, use, utility, and business and occupation taxes, fell short by $52.9 million (2.5%), with retail sales tax and B&O tax collections down by 2.9% and 2.8%, respectively. The decline was partly due to disruptions in the auto sector from a cyber-attack and fewer weekdays in June 2024 compared to the previous year.
However, Non-Revenue Act taxes, such as real estate excise taxes, exceeded forecasts by $19.8 million, with a notable 27.7% increase attributed to sales of controlling interests in corporations. Despite recent revenue shortfalls, inflation rates have decreased from last year’s highs, and a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September could improve the state’s revenue outlook.
