Back-to-school spending remains a critical barometer of household financial confidence, and this year, shoppers are adjusting their habits in response to continued economic uncertainty. New research from the National Retail Federation reveals three key trends shaping the 2025 back-to-school season: earlier shopping, greater price sensitivity and a shift toward immediate needs.
A growing number of families are shopping earlier, with 26 percent beginning their purchases by early June. Many are motivated by concerns over tariffs and the potential for rising prices later in the season. Budget pressures are also driving more consumers to discount retailers and pushing shoppers to be more selective in what they buy.
Most notably, more families, especially those in lower-income brackets, are choosing to purchase only what’s necessary for the first few weeks of school rather than stocking up for the full year. Unlike in 2023, when federal stimulus and savings offered a cushion, many households are now managing tighter budgets without those supports.
These shifting behaviors reflect how consumers are navigating inflation and market volatility with a practical, cautious approach. Retailers may want to adjust their promotional strategies and timing to align with this more deliberate shopping mindset.
Retailers can gain further insight into these evolving behaviors during NRF’s upcoming 2025 Back-to-School Consumer Trends webinar on July 23 at 10:00 a.m. PT. The session will feature the latest data and insights on how economic conditions are shaping shopper behavior.
Register here: nrf.zoom.us/webinar/register
