Import cargo volumes at major U.S. ports are expected to rebound in July after a sharp spring decline but are projected to fall again later this year, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The recent extension of paused tariffs until August 1 has prompted retailers to accelerate shipments in anticipation of renewed trade costs.
While July imports are forecast to rise 2.1% year over year, volumes are expected to drop significantly through the fall, with September down nearly 20% and November projected to hit the lowest level since early 2023. The uncertainty around tariff policy, particularly new reciprocal tariffs and ongoing questions about China trade agreements, is complicating planning for many retailers.
Retail leaders emphasize the challenge for small businesses, which often lack the resources to manage sudden cost increases. NRF and Hackett Associates stress the need for predictable trade policy and finalized negotiations to ensure stable supply chains and pricing.
