Despite an effort to start the holiday shopping season earlier due to a shorter shopping window, many consumers still postponed their purchases until after Thanksgiving. The economic landscape, influenced by lingering inflation and tight household budgets, continues to shape spending behaviors. While inflation has eased somewhat, many families remain cautious about their finances, with the potential impact of new tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump adding to uncertainties.
Black Friday Trends: A Mixed Picture
Sales Performance
Black Friday 2024 demonstrated strong consumer engagement but reflected ongoing shifts in shopping habits. U.S. retail sales (excluding autos) rose 3.4% compared to last year, according to Mastercard’s SpendingPulse. E-commerce played a significant role, with online sales climbing 10.2% to $10.8 billion, per Adobe Analytics. The use of “buy now, pay later” plans fueled an 8.8% rise in online spending, particularly for mobile shopping, which accounted for 79.3% of transactions.
AI and Chatbots: Emerging Winners
Artificial intelligence proved transformative in driving holiday sales. Salesforce reported that AI agents facilitated over $14 billion in global online sales, with retailers employing generative AI experiencing a 9% higher conversion rate. Chatbot usage skyrocketed, with bot-driven clicks to retail sites increasing 1,800% year-over-year. Consumers relied on AI for deal-hunting, item recommendations, and brand discovery.
Toy Sales Surge
Toys emerged as a surprising category winner, with online sales jumping 622% compared to the prior month’s daily averages. Popular items included Harry Potter Lego sets, Disney Princess dolls, and the Cookeez Makery oven playset. After facing challenges last year, this recovery in the toy sector underscores its resilience during the holiday season.
Pricing Dynamics and Margins
Deep discounts dominated Black Friday, driven by inflationary pressures and the need to clear excess inventory. Adobe noted peak discounts of 27.8% on toys, 27.4% on electronics, and 24.2% on TVs. Retailers extended deals throughout the weekend and beyond, turning the holiday shopping period into an extended value-driven event.
Experts observed that inflation-fatigued consumers are prioritizing essential purchases and spreading out their holiday shopping. This behavior highlights the importance of ongoing promotions to accommodate tighter budgets.
Thanksgiving Day Gains Momentum
Thanksgiving Day itself has become a significant retail event, with online sales reaching a record $6.1 billion, an 8.8% year-over-year increase. This trend reflects a broader shift in holiday shopping, as consumers take advantage of early deals and digital-first experiences.
“Thanksgiving is stealing some of Black Friday’s thunder,” noted Vivek Pandya of Adobe Digital Insights. Brands are spreading promotions over weeks, diluting the urgency of in-person shopping events like Black Friday.
Looking Ahead
Holiday shopping continues to evolve, shaped by economic pressures and technological advancements. While traditional retail remains relevant, digital channels are redefining consumer behavior. For retailers, this dynamic environment presents both challenges and opportunities to innovate and meet the demands of modern shoppers.
The shift toward e-commerce, driven by AI and extended promotional periods, signals a new era for holiday retailing—one where the season is no longer defined by single days but by an ongoing, omni-channel experience.
