The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates that holiday retail sales in 2024 will reach a new record of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, despite a more cautious consumer outlook. This projection represents a 3.5% growth over last year, marking the slowest increase in six years but still reflects positive momentum.
E-commerce is expected to be a major contributor, with online and other non-store sales projected to range from $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion, up from $273.3 billion in 2023. However, this year’s 26-day shopping period, shortened by nearly a week compared to last year, and economic factors such as hurricanes Helene and Milton may shape spending patterns.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz remains optimistic, stating that “household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season,” though spending may lean toward caution. Adobe predicts that online sales will see a significant boost from promotions and buy now, pay later (BNPL) options, which are forecasted to drive $18.5 billion in spending—an 11.4% increase over last year.
As retailers like Target prepare for the season by hiring 100,000 seasonal employees, the industry is gearing up for a robust holiday shopping period fueled by online growth.
