The Office of Program Research (OPR), a nonpartisan staff for the Washington State House of Representatives, has estimated a significant budget shortfall for the coming years. According to their report presented to the Appropriations Committee, the unrestricted ending balance for funds subject to the outlook (NGFO) is projected at -$4.351 billion for 2025–27 and -$6.700 billion for 2027–29.
The shortfall stems from increased costs for maintaining current services. OPR estimates that maintenance level changes—covering inflation and enrollment adjustments—will raise appropriations by $742 million in 2023–25, $4.377 billion in 2025–27, and $6.367 billion in 2027–29. Key drivers include inflation adjustments for K–12 education, caseloads for childcare and long-term care, and debt service.
These projections do not account for employee compensation or other policy changes, which could push the shortfall closer to $10 billion, similar to estimates from the Office of Financial Management.
OPR cautions against assuming overly optimistic revenue growth, which could exacerbate the deficit. Lawmakers are advised to base spending on forecasted revenues to avoid compounding budgetary challenges. With further updates expected before the Legislature crafts its budget, the financial outlook remains uncertain but daunting.
