Recent forecasts have raised questions about whether Washington, and particularly Seattle, is entering a recession. Economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Investors Service recently placed Washington among 21 states “on the precipice” of one. Yet, by most traditional measures, the local economy remains resilient.
Unemployment in Washington is around 4.5 percent, far below the levels seen during the Great Recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains near record highs, and statewide revenue continues to grow, though at a slower pace. Still, there are clear signs of a cooling economy: construction and housing starts are down, Seattle’s office vacancy rate has reached 27 percent, and the city faces a $150 million budget shortfall.
Federal tariffs and proposed visa fees could challenge Washington’s trade-dependent industries, while local business taxes and high minimum wages are adding pressure to employers. Meanwhile, sectors such as healthcare, technology, and education remain steady, and productivity growth continues to lead the nation.
Despite these mixed signals, most indicators suggest that Seattle’s economy is not in a formal recession. High wages, strong productivity, and diverse industries continue to position the region as one of the nation’s most resilient economic centers.
