The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects retail sales will grow 4.4 percent in 2026, reaching $5.6 trillion, according to a new forecasting model developed with Oxford Economics. This rate exceeds the 10-year average of 3.6 percent, excluding pandemic-era volatility.
NRF leaders point to continued consumer resilience as a key driver. Household spending remained strong in 2025 despite fluctuating economic conditions and is expected to continue supporting growth in the year ahead. Higher income households are projected to account for a significant share of retail spending, while lower income consumers may remain more cautious.
Economic conditions present a mixed outlook. Global tensions and trade policy uncertainties could impact markets, while inflation is expected to stay elevated through midyear before easing later in 2026. Modest gains in consumer spending may also be supported by larger tax refunds tied to recent federal tax changes.
The labor market is expected to soften slightly, though unemployment is forecasted to remain below 4.5 percent. Despite lukewarm consumer sentiment, NRF notes that spending trends have remained relatively strong, supported by income growth and stable household finances.
Overall, WR members can expect moderate but steady growth, with economic fundamentals continuing to support consumer activity.
