A new Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates indicates that declining import volumes at major United States container ports are likely to continue into 2026. Recent drops are tied to tariff impacts and uncertainty surrounding future trade policy.
Although retailers are well stocked for what is expected to be a record holiday season, NRF notes that shifting trade decisions will shape supply chain strategies in the year ahead. Some tariffs have recently been reduced, while others remain under legal review. Even if certain tariffs are overturned, analysts expect efforts to reinstate them through other authorities.
Hackett Associates reports that rising tariff pressures are already contributing to weaker cargo demand. Shipping rates on both coasts have begun to ease as import needs decline from key global markets.
Global Port Tracker data shows that October imports reached 2.07 million containers, nearly eight percent lower than a year earlier. Projections for November and December suggest even steeper year-over-year declines. The slowdown follows elevated imports in late 2024 when retailers moved goods earlier to avoid potential disruptions.
Forecasts suggest that cargo movement may see a modest month to month increase early next year, but volumes are still expected to remain below prior levels as retailers navigate evolving trade conditions.
