Monthly import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to fall below 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) for the rest of 2025, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The decline follows early shipments of holiday goods and the ongoing impact of rising tariffs on imported products.
NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold noted that retailers frontloaded shipments to avoid reciprocal tariffs and are now well-stocked for the holiday season. However, new tariffs on items such as upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanities are set to take effect soon, with additional increases possible in early 2026.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said that shifting U.S. tariff policy is contributing to economic uncertainty, leading to fluctuating trade volumes in the coming months. August imports reached 2.32 million TEU, but projections show declines through year-end, with December forecast at 1.72 million TEU, the lowest level since March 2023.
Despite the slowdown, total imports for 2025 are expected to reach 24.79 million TEU, down 2.9% from 2024. The Global Port Tracker report is available to NRF members at NRF.com/PortTracker.
