U.S. container import volumes are projected to stay below last year’s levels into early fall, even with temporary increases in May and June, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Port activity in March reached 2.16 million twenty-foot equivalent units, slightly higher than the same month in 2025 and up from February due to seasonal disruptions. Imports in April are estimated at 2.13 million units, a decline compared to the prior year, while May and June are expected to rise year over year before declining again in July through September.
Analysts attribute the uneven trend to last year’s sharp decline following tariff changes, along with ongoing inflation pressures, weaker consumer confidence, and global uncertainty. Retailers are also showing caution in restocking inventory amid geopolitical tensions and softer demand signals.
Overall, the first half of 2026 is projected to be modestly higher than the same period in 2025, but full-year import volumes in 2025 already showed a slight decline compared to 2024.
For WR members, the report signals continued volatility in supply chains and suggests retailers should plan for fluctuating import levels rather than steady growth in the near term.
