Retailers are expected to ramp up imports this summer following a temporary 90-day pause in tariff increases on goods from China, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The pause, which lowered tariffs from 145 percent to 30 percent until August 12, has prompted retailers to quickly place orders ahead of the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. This move comes after many retailers had previously reduced or delayed imports due to the steep tariffs introduced in April.
Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, emphasized the need for continued trade negotiations to support supply chain stability. He noted that retailers are working to ensure products remain available and affordable for consumers.
While May saw a notable drop in imports, June through August is projected to show a short-term rebound. However, experts warn that unless further extensions or agreements are reached, import volumes could decline significantly in the fall.
Global Port Tracker forecasts 12.54 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) for the first half of 2025, slightly below pre-tariff projections but above earlier estimates made before the pause.
