The National Retail Federation is forecasting a historic holiday season with retail sales for November and December projected to exceed one trillion dollars for the first time. The outlook reflects steady consumer activity even as many households navigate continued economic uncertainty.
The NRF expects holiday sales to grow between 3.5% and 4.2% compared to last year. In 2024, sales increased just over 4% and reached $976 billion. Shoppers are anticipated to spend an average of $890 each, which would be the second-highest amount recorded since the survey began more than twenty years ago. These estimates do not include spending at automobile dealers, gasoline stations or restaurants.
NRF leaders note that while consumers are mindful of rising prices and broader economic pressures, they continue to prioritize holiday giving and look for value when making purchasing decisions. Retailers are responding by preparing for steady demand, though holiday hiring is expected to be lower than in past years. The industry is projected to add between 276,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, down from more than 400,000 a year ago.
Despite workforce reductions earlier this year, retailers remain focused on meeting customer needs throughout the peak shopping season.
