The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates indicates that import cargo volumes at major ports are expected to ease in November and December as most holiday goods have already arrived. Despite an uncertain tariff environment, retailers moved early to secure inventory and limit price pressures. NRF reports that stores and warehouses are well supplied and that shoppers should find a wide range of products at stable prices throughout the season.
Analysts note that shifting tariff policies have created challenges for long-term planning among importers and carriers. Current projections suggest modest declines in import volumes at the end of 2025, along with a larger drop anticipated in early 2026. While a slowdown late in the year is common, this year’s softer numbers are also tied to unusually high imports in late 2024 and frontloaded shipments earlier this year.
NRF forecasts holiday sales to grow between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent over last year, reaching just over one trillion dollars. Global Port Tracker data shows that after a strong first half of 2025, total imports for the full year are expected to finish slightly below 2024 levels.
The full Global Port Tracker report is available to NRF retail members.
