Retailers anticipate that 15.8% of sales will be returned in 2025, totaling $849.9 billion, according to the 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns, a UPS company. This figure is similar to 2024, when returns reached $890 billion.
The report highlights that returns have become a key part of the customer experience and a driver of brand loyalty. Online returns remain higher than average, with nearly one in five online purchases expected to be returned. Gen Z consumers, who lead all generations in return activity, average 7.7 online returns annually.
Free and fast returns are major expectations, with 82% of shoppers citing free returns as a top factor when deciding where to buy. A poor experience can be costly, as 71% of consumers say they are less likely to shop again after a negative return process.
Retailers continue to balance customer satisfaction with rising operational costs, shipping fees and tariff pressures. Nearly two-thirds plan to update their returns processes in the next six months, and 85% are using artificial intelligence to detect or prevent return fraud, which accounts for 9% of all returns.
