As retailers look ahead to 2026, National Retail Federation experts point to a year shaped by evolving consumer behavior, rapid technology adoption, and continued policy and economic uncertainty.
Artificial intelligence remains a central theme. Experts expect AI to further transform supply chains, marketing, customer engagement, and fraud prevention, while also introducing new governance and cybersecurity considerations. At the same time, AI is changing how consumers discover products and make purchasing decisions, influencing search, reviews, and personalization across channels.
Consumer behavior is another key focus. Spending levels have not always aligned with consumer confidence in recent years, prompting retailers to look more closely at the motivations behind purchases, including family priorities, community connection, and the search for value and enjoyment. Economic pressures, particularly for lower-income households, could test consumer resilience in the year ahead.
Sustainability and circular retail practices are expected to expand as retailers respond to consumer interest, cost pressures, and regulatory requirements. Efforts such as resale, repair, and recycling can reduce return costs, create new revenue streams, and help address product stewardship laws.
Workforce and supply chain challenges also remain prominent. Automation and demographic shifts are reshaping retail jobs, driving continued investment in training, flexibility, and compensation. At the same time, uncertainty around trade policy, tariffs, and immigration pathways may affect staffing and sourcing decisions.
Finally, retailers are watching food affordability, organized retail crime, and broader economic signals such as hiring trends and wage growth. Together, these factors suggest a complex but opportunity-rich environment as retailers adapt to serve customers and communities in 2026.
