Recent economic data and surveys indicate a mixed outlook for the US economy. A Gallup survey revealed a decline in economic confidence for the first time in five months, with rising inflation being a top concern for 55% of Americans. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 0.3% increase in Personal Consumption Expenditure index, while the federal Consumer Price Index showed a 0.4% rise in prices. This drop in confidence, reminiscent of levels seen during the 1992 election, suggests a potential shift in voter sentiment.
Contrastingly, the National Retail Federation’s analysis highlights consumer resilience amidst economic challenges. Despite a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.6% and unexpected inflation reaching 3.4%, consumer spending remains strong, supported by a robust job market and rising wages. Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz emphasized the resilience of consumer spending, which increased by 2.5% year over year. Though job openings slightly decreased, solid job growth persists.
Despite signs of economic deceleration, NRF’s analysis suggests that the economy remains in good shape, bolstered by consumer confidence and steady spending, which increased by 2.5% year over year.
