The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that retail sales during November and December 2026 will grow 4.2% over 2025, reaching $1.013 trillion. However, new consumer survey results show that affordability will influence how shoppers approach the holiday season.
According to NRF’s annual survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, 56% of holiday shoppers say the economy will affect their spending plans. Among those consumers, 43% plan to shop sales more often, 31% expect to comparison shop online more frequently, and 29% intend to use coupons more often.
Despite budget concerns, 91% of U.S. adults plan to celebrate winter holidays, including Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa. Forty-three percent of shoppers plan to begin browsing or buying before November, similar to last year. Among early shoppers, half say they want to spread purchases across their budgets, while 37% are motivated by attractive prices and promotions. Those waiting until November or December also cite deals, with 46% saying that is when they expect to find the best prices.
Thanksgiving weekend remains a major shopping period. Nearly two-thirds of consumers, 64%, say they are likely to wait until that weekend to complete most of their holiday shopping.
Online shopping remains the leading destination, with 53% planning to make purchases online. Grocery stores and discount stores each appeal to 43% of shoppers, followed by department stores at 42%. Gift cards top consumers’ wish lists at 47%, followed by clothing at 44%.
NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, comparable to the estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs added during the 2025 holiday season. Inflation, higher fuel prices, interest rates, and consumer debt continue to contribute to a cautious hiring outlook.
The survey included 8,094 adults and was conducted Oct. 1 through 7, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. NRF’s sales forecast excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.
