Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are projected to increase year over year in June before trending lower through the remainder of summer and into fall, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. The short-term increase is largely attributed to retailers moving goods earlier than usual to manage potential cost pressures from tariffs and fuel price changes.
U.S. ports handled 2.05 million Twenty Foot Equivalent Units in April, down 5.1% from March and down 7.3% year over year. While May data is still pending, June is forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3% year over year, followed by July at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4%, August at 2.12 million TEU, down 8.6%, and September at 2.06 million TEU, down 2.2%.
Analysts note that early seasonal imports and comparisons to unusually low volumes last year are shaping near term gains, while inflation, global conflict impacts, and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on demand. Despite the June and July increases, overall import activity is expected to soften later in the year as consumer and business uncertainty persists.
For Washington Retail Association members, the outlook signals continued volatility in supply chain timing rather than sustained growth in import volumes.
